Rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to disrupt ocean freight, air cargo and wider Middle East supply chains, according to new analysis from Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos.
The warning follows US and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliatory action by Tehran targeting multiple countries in the region.
Strait of Hormuz remains open – but risks rising
Iran has not formally closed the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes, though it has reportedly banned US-flagged vessels from transiting.
Two oil tankers were attacked near the waterway on Sunday, while Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned that transits are not safe.
The strait handles a significant share of global oil exports and containerised cargo flows serving Gulf states, making it strategically vital for both energy and trade.
Container carriers divert vessels
Major shipping lines including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSCand CMA CGM are reported to be suspending services to affected ports and diverting vessels away from the Gulf.
CMA CGM has introduced a $4,000 per FEU emergency surcharge on services to impacted areas, reflecting heightened operational risk and insurance costs.
Freight analysts warn that rerouting container traffic away from the Persian Gulf is likely to increase volumes at alternative gateways such as Khor Fakkan in the UAE, ports in Oman and transhipment hubs in Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Singapore, potentially leading to congestion.
Operations at Jebel Ali, the region’s largest port operated by DP World, were suspended after an aerial interception reportedly caused a fire at the facility.
Red Sea shipping recovery delayed
In a further complication, Yemen’s Houthi movement has threatened to resume attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. Some carriers that had tentatively returned to the Suez route are again diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, extending transit times between Asia and Europe.
Industry observers say a full-scale return to Red Sea routings may now be delayed if the security situation deteriorates.
Air cargo hub disruption
Air freight could also face knock-on effects. Temporary airport closures in Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Kuwait and Dubai, alongside flight suspensions by major regional carriers including Emirates, Etihad Airways, Qatar Airways and flydubai, may disrupt transit cargo flows.
The Gulf acts as a major intercontinental transfer hub linking Asia, Europe and Africa. Any sustained reduction in bellyhold capacity or freighter movements could tighten available space.
However, analysts say air cargo rates into and out of the Middle East have so far remained stable, suggesting that markets are waiting to see whether the disruption proves short-lived or escalates further.
If tensions persist, logistics experts warn that both ocean freight costs and air cargo capacity could come under sustained pressure, with ripple effects extending well beyond the region.