Air cargo volumes from Hong Kong to Europe have dropped sharply following the introduction of new EU import duty rules on 1 July, with tonnages falling by more than 20% by mid-July compared with both last year and early June levels.
The latest data from WorldACD Market Data shows chargeable weight from Hong Kong to Europe declined by a further 5% week-on-week (WoW) in week 29 (13–19 July), marking a fifth consecutive weekly drop. Volumes were down 24% year-on-year (YoY) for the same week. Across weeks 26 to 29, tonnages fell by an average of 18% YoY, based on more than 500,000 weekly transactions.
Mainland China also recorded declines, with volumes slipping by 2% WoW in week 29 after a 9% drop the previous week. This left China–Europe tonnages down 10% YoY for week 29 and 8% lower on average across weeks 26 to 29. Combined volumes from China and Hong Kong to Europe were down 11% YoY over the four-week period, while the rest of the global market grew by 5%.
The downturn is closely linked to new EU rules removing the ‘de minimis’ exemption on shipments valued below €150. The changes introduce a €3 per item fee and stricter customs reporting requirements. Hong Kong has been particularly affected due to its high share of e-commerce traffic.
Other Asia Pacific origins have also seen declines since the rules came into force, with volumes from Vietnam and Thailand down 9% and 11% YoY respectively in week 29. Overall, Asia Pacific to Europe tonnages dropped 13% YoY in both weeks 28 and 29, largely driven by falls from China and Hong Kong.
Transpacific market shows resilience
In contrast, the transpacific market has remained relatively stable. Volumes from China and Hong Kong to the US rose by 1% WoW in week 29, standing 19% and 8% higher YoY respectively. This comes against a weaker comparison base last year, when US import rule changes had pushed volumes into negative territory.
Total Asia Pacific to US tonnages increased by 3% WoW in week 29, up 15% YoY. The weekly gain was supported by a strong rebound from Taiwan, where volumes surged 32% WoW after earlier disruption caused by typhoon Bavi.
Spot rates continue downward trend
Spot rates from Asia Pacific to Europe have now declined for four consecutive weeks, driven mainly by falling prices from China. In week 29, China–Europe spot rates dropped 5% WoW to $4.17 per kilo. Despite this, rates remain 8% higher YoY, although the gap has narrowed significantly from the 30–40% increases seen two months ago.
Across Asia Pacific, average spot rates to Europe stood at $4.63 per kilo in week 29, up 20% YoY.
Rates to the US were stable at $6.61 per kilo, with declines from China and Hong Kong offset by gains from South Korea and Taiwan. Year-on-year, Asia Pacific to US spot rates remain elevated at 36% above 2025 levels, supported by strong demand, tight capacity, and higher fuel costs linked to the US-Iran conflict.
Global market remains steady
Globally, air cargo volumes were broadly stable in week 29, with a 4% increase from Asia Pacific offset by declines elsewhere. Total tonnages rose 3% YoY, with Asia Pacific up 6%.
Average global air cargo rates edged down 1% WoW to $3.00 per kilo but remained 23% higher YoY. Spot rates increased slightly by 1% WoW to $3.46 per kilo, up 30% YoY.
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, global capacity rose 1% WoW, driven by a 4% increase from Asia Pacific. Overall capacity now sits 3% above pre-conflict levels seen earlier this year, although capacity in the Middle East and South Asia remains significantly constrained, still 13% below pre-war levels, with Gulf markets down around 22%.