Airfreight rate movements remained subdued in July, reflecting the typical low season for the cargo industry.
Data from the Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI), compiled by TAC Data, revealed global air cargo rates rose by 4% month-on-month in July but were down 1.8% compared to the same period in 2024.
On key trade lanes, rates from Hong Kong to North America increased 2.4% month-on-month to $5.11 per kg but declined 10.7% year-on-year. Meanwhile, Hong Kong to Europe rates edged up 0.7% to $4.39 per kg, a 2.4% drop from the previous year.
TAC Index editor Neil Wilson said the modest changes were typical for summer months, when air cargo demand softens and passenger bellyhold capacity increases, especially on transatlantic routes.
“The relatively muted movement in rates was not unusual for a period when air cargo often enters its ‘low season’,” said Wilson. “Extra capacity from summer travel tends to put downward pressure on prices.”
While overall volatility has eased since earlier in the year, ongoing adjustments in supply chains continue amid looming US tariff changes and the upcoming end of the de minimis exemption on August 27.
Wilson noted variability in pricing between lanes, though major routes from China to the US and Europe showed limited rate movement. “The relative strength in China outbound pricing reflects frontloading by shippers ahead of potential trade disruptions,” he added.
Freighter capacity has also shifted toward Southeast Asian lanes, including Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia, contributing to broader supply adjustments.
This aligns with recent Xeneta data, which reported an unexpected 5% rise in global airfreight demand in July, attributed to pre-emptive shipping strategies in anticipation of new trade measures.