Global air cargo demand showed resilience in November, marking the 13th consecutive month of double-digit growth. Load factors reached their highest since April 2022, with demand increasing by +10% year-on-year, driven by booming e-commerce. A modest +2% rise in air cargo capacity fueled a surge in global spot rates, which hit nearly two-year highs at USD 2.90 per kilo.
While some market sectors anticipated a “peak of all peaks” in Q4, Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, highlighted the industry’s efforts to avoid such instability. “The peak of all peaks creates imbalance. The maturity shown this year reflects better resource allocation and improved terms between stakeholders,” he noted, contrasting this year’s controlled growth with the chaotic peaks of 2023.
In November, the dynamic load factor reached 63%, the highest in over 30 months, further solidifying carriers’ negotiating power. Spot rate trends varied across regions, with Northeast Asia-Europe rates rising +13% month-on-month and Southeast Asia-Europe rates remaining flat. Transatlantic routes experienced sharp rate hikes, such as Europe to North America climbing +46% from the previous month to USD 2.72 per kg.
Capacity management played a key role in stabilizing the market. Unlike 2023, this year’s peak season saw a moderate +12% increase in spot rates from September to early December, compared to a +25% rise during the same period last year.
Reflecting on 2024, van de Wouw praised the industry’s progress, emphasizing that the air cargo sector has embraced stability and maturity: “This year has demonstrated the industry’s ability to manage growth responsibly, setting a positive tone for the year ahead.”