Aircraft manufacturer Embraer has released a new report highlighting the vast untapped potential for enhancing intra-African air connectivity, positioning improved regional air travel as a vital catalyst for economic growth across the continent.
Unveiled today at the AviaDev aviation development conference in Zanzibar, the report underscores how limited connectivity remains a significant barrier to both economic and aviation sector development in Africa.
Despite comprising 18% of the world’s population, Africa accounts for less than 3% of global GDP and only 2.1% of global air passenger and cargo traffic, according to figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Economic Growth, But Air Links Lag Behind
Africa’s economy is forecast to grow at 3.8% per annum over the next two decades, with air travel demand – measured in Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPK) – expected to rise by 4.4% annually, outpacing both Europe and North America.
Yet the continent still holds the lowest propensity to travel globally. Embraer argues that developing intra-regional air links is essential to realise this projected growth and better connect Africa’s vast and diverse markets.
Connectivity Gaps and Missed Opportunities
Currently, nearly two-thirds (64%) of intra-African routes are served by just seven flights per week or fewer, and many city pairs have no direct service at all.
Passengers are often forced to transit through distant hubs in Europe or the Middle East – adding cost, time, and complexity to regional travel.
The report identifies 45 unserved intra-African routes that could sustain multiple direct weekly flights. Among these, the top 10 could support at least three direct services a week with a 100-seat aircraft.
Demand Could Surge with Direct Flights
Embraer’s analysis is based on an “intra-Africa stimulation curve”, derived from 10 years of traffic data. It estimates that introducing direct flights significantly stimulates passenger demand.
For instance, on routes with an existing base of 50 passengers, demand could rise by 40% once a direct connection is introduced.
On smaller routes with just 20 passengers, direct flights could stimulate an 80% increase in demand.
Strategic Aircraft and Hubs
The report advocates for the deployment of right-sized aircraft, such as Embraer’s E2 series, which are well-suited for fragmented markets. These aircraft offer lower operating costs and extended range, making them ideal for opening, developing and sustaining new short- and medium-haul routes across the continent.
Improved hub operations and greater flight frequencies are also key to enhancing the quality of connectivity, offering more convenience and flexibility to passengers.
Industry Support
Stephan Hannemann, Embraer’s senior vice president sales & marketing and head of region for the Middle East and Africa, commented: “This report, and the data behind it, highlights the significant potential for new routes and improved hub connectivity across Africa.
“By deploying the right aircraft and enhancing intra-regional air travel, Africa can unlock new economic opportunities, improve the overall travel experience for millions of passengers, and unlock the continent’s economic potential.”
As Africa looks to harness its demographic and economic growth, the findings suggest that closing the connectivity gap could serve as a key enabler for broader regional development.