Airbus has revised its 20-year global market forecast for freighter demand, making slight reductions while emphasizing new-build aircraft and the replacement market.
Key Forecast Changes:
- Freighter Demand: Airbus now predicts demand for 2,470 freighters by 2043, down from last year’s forecast of 2,510.
- Cargo Demand Growth: The forecasted annual growth rate for cargo demand between 2024 and 2044 has been adjusted to 3.1%, down from the previous 3.2%.
Freighter Fleet Projections:
- Current and Future Fleet: The global freighter fleet is expected to grow from the current 2,220 to 3,360 aircraft by 2043.
- Retention of Current Aircraft: Higher retention rates of existing aircraft are anticipated, with 890 units remaining in service compared to the previous estimate of 720.
Delivery Demand:
- New-Build Aircraft: The demand for new-build freighters is projected at 940 units.
- Converted Aircraft: The demand for converted freighters is expected to be around 1,530 units, which is fewer than previously anticipated.
Market Analysis:
- Service Lives of Freighters: According to Bob Lange, head of market analysis at Airbus, “New-build freighters have very long service lives,” suggesting a focus on longevity and sustainability in fleet management.
This forecast adjustment reflects Airbus’s strategic vision for the freighter market, balancing between new-build and converted aircraft to meet evolving cargo demands over the next two decades.